Preakness Results

Big Brown looked terrific before the race when I saw him on TV. He ran just as well, winning by 5-1/4 lengths. He looked great running and unbeatable. It was no match at all for him. The other horses just were totally outclassed in here.

I think he has a great chance in the Belmont Stakes. It will be a harder race though. He will have to go 1-1/2 miles and face horses he has never run against before. I don't know who will be running in the Belmont yet. Casino Drive is one horse that may give him a challenge. The Triple Crown was last won in 1978. I think we may finally have a Triple Crown winner after all those years.

Preakness

Big Brown will face 12 other weak 3 year olds this Saturday at Pimlico in the Preakness. The competition is not much different than the Derby field he faced. Big Brown just towers over the field once again.

The only other horse I like in here that may have an outside chance of winning is Behindatthebar. He will have have to run a big race to have any chance of beating Big Brown Saturday.

UPDATE: Behindatthebar is scratched. This makes it even eaiser for Big Brown now. I don't see any other horse that can beat him.

Big Brown

Big Brown looks like he will face all new horses in the Preakness next Saturday. Maybe Recapturetheglory may join him again. The only problem I see with Big Brown is that he ran three triple-digit beyers now. Most horses I have ever followed usually "bounce" after just two big races like he had before the Derby. I would find it hard to believe if he does not bounce in the Preakness. He may still win the race though since he has a lot of speed. It will depend on how good the new horses are that he will face.

War Pass

I sure hope War Pass can come back from his injury and race again this year. With very weak 3 year olds, it would have been nice to see him and Big Brown in some races. War Pass ran a 113 beyer speed figure at 2 years old. If he kept developing he would have most likely run even better at 3 and 4 years old. All talented horses improve until they are around 4. Maybe he will be back by the Breeders' Cup this year or before.

Colonel John

I think Colonel John still has big potential. His 6th place finish didn't really show what he is capable of. He banged into Pyro leaving the starting gate and also had traffic trouble later on. When you have a field of 20 horses it is easy to get blocked and banged around during the race. This was also his first race on the dirt. I look forward to his next race and see him win again.

Kentucky Derby Results

Big Brown wins from post 20 and with only 3 starts. Big Brown had two things going for him that you need to win a Derby that I always use to pick my horse. He had a triple digit beyer and a bullet workout. Colonel John had the bullet workout but no triple digit beyer. Since the non-dirt races it seems are slower, I figured he would run a much faster beyer figure on the dirt. It does not seem like he did though. Coming in 6th was not really that great but he did beat out 14 other horses in here. This is the first year where you have many horses coming from non-dirt tracks making it very hard to handicap. With Big Brown having to overcome post 20 and little experience, I would go with Colonel John all the time. Colonel John was the best of the worst.

Big Brown had a very weak field this year to go against but still ran great. I don't know how he would have done if Street Sense or Hard Spun was in this race. I think it would have been a much closer finish than we saw today. I still have to give him credit and hope he can pull off the Triple Crown. I don't see anyone that can beat him.

Recap for 5/2/08

Churchill Downs (race 10) Kentucky Oaks.
The track was rated sloppy and rain still falling as this race went off. The best horse still won though. Proud Spell won by 5 lengths. She did good before on an off-track. Front runners always have an advantage on a wet track. Country Star did ok coming in 6th considering the track conditions and her first race on dirt. She tired out a little at the end it seems. The sloppy track is probably not for her.

The Kentucky Derby tomorrow will be a guess if the track is not rated fast. Big Brown is a front runner and will have an advantage if it is sloppy.

Kentucky Derby Analysis

This is one of the hardest years to pick the Kentucky Derby winner I have seen. Most all of the horses are much weaker than they should be. The non-dirt races add to the problem. My original pick was War Pass. I have only found one horse that can win this race now. If he was scratched I would have no pick. My pick is Colonel John. If the track is wet though, anyone can win this. Other analysis for some horses are below.

Colonel John - My pick this year. Huge last workout which is a major plus. Seems to love the dirt at Churchill. Tough horse with race comments that show it. Rallied, dueled, held, game, re-bid 3w, split foes late... He should run his best race ever and a triple digit beyer Saturday.

Eight Belles - Don't think she will run a triple digit beyer here. Never ran a 1 1/8 mile race yet. Is outmatched against the males. She still may do well though compared to others in here.

Big Brown - Winning from post 20 with other front runners besides him and only 3 lifetime races seems impossible. Deserves a lot of credit if he can still win this. Has a last bullet workout which is a big plus unlike most in here which do not.

Pyro - Didn't like his last race at all even though it was at Keeneland. He was better at 2 years old I think. His last two dirt races were only ok. Very slow last workout shows he is not going to win this race.

Big Truck - A bullet last workout which is nice. Slow beyers on his dirt races though. The best race he has won is a G3 and he only won by a neck. Not a horse usually that can win a Derby race.

Kentucky Derby

The post positions for the Kentucky Derby are finally up and Big Brown has post 20. What is even worse though is that the other 3 horses to the left of him are also front running horses. Cowboy Cal, Recapturetheglory, and Gayego. This will be some battle for the lead. I can't see how any of them can win. If any of these horses does win, they certainly deserve a lot of credit.

Colonel John has post 10 and will be my final pick. He should run a big race Saturday.

Races for 5/02/08

Churchill Downs (race 10) Kentucky Oaks
Proud Spell is the best horse in here. I like Country Star, but she has not had a race on the dirt yet. With some pace in this race maybe with Proud Spell and a few others, I think Country Star can pull this off and get the win. If a slow pace happens Proud Spell may hold on. My pick will be Country Star.
UPDATE: Eight Belles is running in the Kentucky Derby instead.